As of today all new content from Pints in the Paint can be found over at a Fox Sports subsidiary known as Yardbarker. This old site will remain, but all the content can be found on the new one as well. Thank you all for reading these last nine months; with Yardbarker’s ability to run ads on the side panels and wide-ranging sports network, this is a step up for Pints in the Paint. We’ll see where it all goes but for those who have been along for the ride since day one I hope you enjoyed and will keep reading over at the new site.

Link to the new site: Pints In The Paint on Yardbarker

Alone and dejected after another blown NFC Championship

The actors went off the script again.  First it was Corey Webster jumping in front of an underthrown pass to Donald Driver in the frigid NFC Championship game in 2007.  That pass was supposed to be completed and the Packers were supposed to go on to face the unbeaten Patriots in what would surely be Brett Favre’s last game of his career, win or lose.  But the Giants had their own plans, as did the Saints.  On Sunday Brett Favre was supposed to drive the Vikings into field goal range setting up a showdown vs Peyton Manning in the Superbowl.  Only Tracy Porter picked off a horrendous pass to send the game into overtime.  After all this is Brett Favre, the wrangler-wearing aww shucks hall of famer, who plays by his own rules.  The Old Gunslinger, the kid out there just having fun playing football.  The script read for validation at the end of a hall of fame career but now it has shifted directions to the guy who throws away the biggest games of his career at the worst possible moments.  There were those 6 interceptions in St. Louis in 2002, the aforementioned pass to Corey Webster of the Giants and of course Sunday’s NFC Championship mistake.  Maybe this is the way it’s supposed to go.  Favre is the biggest draw in football; when he plays people watch.  He was responsible for the most watched show in the history of cable television this season and there he stood alone and anguished after Porter’s pick.  Now we’re left with the will he or won’t he retire debate that will rage until July.  If he comes back some will roll their eyes, others will rejoice; if this is the end there is one conclusion we can take away from his hall of fame career: Brett Favre is the most polarizing individual in American sports.

Born on the Bayou, spent his college days throwing footballs at Southern Mississippi, drafted by Atlanta where Jerry Glanville used him only when he wanted to see a football thrown into the second deck of the stadium from field level, traded to the Packers, paired with Mike Holmgren, won a Superbowl, lost a Superbowl, battled and overcame pain killer addiction, retired, unretired, traded to the Jets, retired again, unretired again, lead the Vikings all the way to the NFC Championship game in what was one of the most brilliant seasons of his 19 year career.  Along the way he was welcomed in as the favorite son of the NFL’s most loyal fanbase no matter how many hair pulling decisions he made…he was theirs.  Somehow many of those same fans that would take a bullet for him up until two seasons ago were vehemently rooting against him on Sunday and when Favre made his game changing pick they laughed.  He wasn’t their problem anymore.  Favre leading the Vikings to the doorstep of the Superbowl has no sports equivalent.  When Jordan retired he came back to the Bulls, but imagine if he decided to play for the Knicks for his second three peat?  What about if the Celtics and Lakers decided to trade Larry and Magic straight up for each other in the summer of 1985?  Or what if the most popular golfer of all time was admitted to a secret sex rehab clinic in Mississippi in the prime of his career?  Oh wait, scratch that last one.

Aikman is one of many that went from rival to spectator in Favre's career

By the time Favre won his first MVP in 1995 he had reached the point where watching his games became an event.  John Madden would endlessly gush about how he had a heated helmet and the whole legend of Brett Favre (and Frank Caliendo’s career ) was born.  No matter who the Packers were playing the game gravitated to Brett Favre’s direction.  This has continued for the last 15 years; Brett Favre resonated with just about everybody.  There wasn’t a more relatable superstar in professional sports.  He was living the life any red blooded male would have if blessed with his skill, a superstar quarterback without the glitz and glamour.  There are several people who fall in my age range who barely remember the NFL without Brett Favre.  He was the constant in an ever-changing league.  He played through the Cowboys’ dynasty, Elway’s swansong, the Patriots dynasty, 2 more titles for Pittsburgh, Spygate and a spoiled perfect season.  In an age where the NFL realized Pete Rozelle’s vision of parity, Favre remained.  He played some of his most memorable playoff games against Troy Aikman and the Cowboys and this past Sunday Troy Aikman was announcing the NFC Championship game featuring Brett Favre and the Vikings.  When you are in the public eye that often, everyone will eventually have an opinion about you.  Outside of Michael Vick a few years back Brett Favre’s possible retirement was the number 1 story in the NFL’s offseason for the better part of last decade.  Even if you wanted to, you couldn’t ignore Brett Favre.

But why do we care about him so much?  After all, if we weren’t interested in his retirement saga Ed Werner may be able to spend the summer with his family.  Instead he’s camped out at the Favre residence telling us if someone said “Bless you” after Brett Favre sneezed today.  We love him for the same reasons we hate him.  We want him to make up his mind but sympathize with the fact that he can’t.  Some wished to see him fail but then felt badly for him when Tracy Porter intercepted his pass.  He left the Packers fans out to dry but the Packers didn’t want him when he expressed interest in coming back.  He wants to be perceived as a simple guy who likes to hunt and fish but then shills for mega corporations like Sears and Samsung.  He’s just having fun out there but reportedly arguing with his coach on the sidelines about play calling.  The Anti-Favre camp bemoaned the notion of having to deal with two weeks of Brett Favre in the Superbowl hype but 52 million people watched the NFC Championship Game.  He makes throws you’ve never seen made, then attempts passes that should never be thrown.  Some of this makes him hypocritical but all of this makes him interesting.

If Brett Favre finally retires maybe some will sleep easier and be happy that its over.  The media will have a field day of career retrospectives, fans will have memorials and the NFL will move forward.  He may end up on an unbearable pregame crew at a major network, or he may just lay low.  How many people have been a part of your life for that last 20 years?  You may think you’re totally sick of him right now and aren’t ready for a summer of will he or won’t he retire but you’re going to miss him.  The NFL is better with Brett Favre in it whether that’s because he does things no quarterback can do or because he recklessly throws away games at critical moments is up to you.  He always keeps us on our toes.

First we head to Seaside, New Jersey where Sammie “Sweetheart”, Ronnie, Pauly D, Vinnie, Snooki, J-WOWWW and The Situation all fist pumped at Karma for the last time yesterday in primetime.  We’ve talked “Jersey Shore” a few times here, starting with the now infamous premiere where America was treated to a hilarious 2 hours of quotes and madness.  Then back in December we heard from the Situation as his star was rising. Then the magnificent 7  finished off the year making the rounds on late night and ringing in 2010 as MTV’s cohosts in Times Square.  Its hard to imagine that a show with a two month lifespan could have led to countless news stories and club appearances that will end up making these kids a lot of money.  Say what you want about MTV’s shallowness but I am going to miss these guys; the reunion show was not enough.  My new hope is that Ronnie and The Situation will be plugged for a Real World/Road Rules challenge, though MTV could cause the apocalypse if those two cross paths with the idiots on RW/RR Challenge.  It would be wildly entertaining to see The Situation talk about his abs to less famous Real World castmembers just to see what kind of blank looks he could draw.  Plus there’s no where to tan and do your laundry on those islands so it may not have a chance to get off the ground.  In case you need to see more, Amazon is already taking preorders for the Uncensored Jersey Shore DVD. Just one burning questions from the finale remains: How does The Situation own a Range Rover?  He drives off in one at the end and remember this is before he’s “famous”.  He must be some kind of gym rat/personal trainer so how does he pull down enough to drive that car?  Somebody answer me.

Moving over to network television where Conan O’Brien will host the “Tonight Show” for the final time this evening.  While Conan was stripped of one of the most successful and marquee television franchises in American history he is walking away with 45 Million and is free to go elsewhere.  Wherever Conan ends up I hope his first guest is Aaron Rodgers so they could have the following conversation:

Conan: So Aaron it had to be kind of strange when you assumed that you would be starting for the Packers after Brett Favre announced his retirement then you were unfairly thrown in the middle of a sh*tstorm created by Favre and management.  What was that like?

Rodgers: Well, Conan, I’m guessing we have a lot in common that way.  Didn’t Leno announce his retirement and hand over the reins to the “Tonight Show” to you only to pull a 180 a few months later with NBC getting involved?

Conan: Absolutely, only the management I worked for made me look bad and took shots at me while bending over to appease Leno.

Rodgers: Oh so they were kind of like Brad Childress when Brett ending up on the Vikings as far as the bending over and appeasing part goes?

Conan: Yes that is basically how it went.  Leno was my Favre only I didn’t have Ted Thompson to stick up for me and move forward.  Instead I was stuck with yes men who would have done anything for ratings at that point but they had completely isolated their younger deomographic by doing this and screwed themselves even further.

Brad Childress is flirting with becoming NBC, sacrificing the future to take a shot for immediate glory.  If Favre fails him this weekend the Vikings and NBC have the same problem on their hands.  They’ve built their hopes of success around one older guy but if either fails they are in the same spot as they were before creating this mess but with no one ready to take over and succeed when he goes away.

Winners in bold.

McGinn:

New York Jets at Indianapolis
Minnesota at New Orleans

Last Week: 1-3
Playoffs Overall: 3-5

Hugh:

New York Jets at Indianapolis
Minnesota at New Orleans

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs Overall: 4-4

Hugh’s Picks vs the Spread: Jets (+7.5), Saints (-3.5)

Last Week: 0-4
Overall: 2-6

Sunday 3 PM EST: Jim Caldwell (Colts) vs Rex Ryan (Jets)

The Jury is still out on if Caldwell's headset is plugged in all the time

Jim Caldwell

Experience: Spent years under the tutelage of Tony Dungy learning the ins and outs of the Colts.  Started the season 14-0 and ironically decided to not play his starters against the Jets, which sacrificed a perfect season and allowed the Jets to get into the playoffs.  That decision may not have only cost him perfection but potentially a chance at the Superbowl if the Jets spring the upset.  I’m unclear as to whether or not his headset is actually plugged in at any point when the Colts have the ball on offense, as most television viewers have never seen him speak.  Up until the infamous 4th and 2 Sunday Night Football game against New England half of the country had no idea what he looked like.

Advantages: He has Peyton Manning, who by all accounts can make any coach look good, even Jim Mora.

Disadvantages: The Colts don’t do anything different then what they always have done, so a creative defense (hello, Jets) can come up with a unique gameplan to confuse Manning.  If this happens we will have no idea if Caldwell is capable of making adjustments because he’s never had to do so on a stage like this.

Pressure Level: Tremedous.  The blood will be on his and Bill Polian’s hands if the Jets win.  They let this team in by conceding perfection and now they need to knock them out to get to the Superbowl.  All that nonsense about “We want to win our last game of the season, blah, blah” will be for naught if they go down to the same team that wouldn’t be here if they had played out the string and gone for perfection.

Rex has his Jets rolling into Championship weekend

Rex Ryan

Experience: Son of famed defensive guru Buddy Ryan of ’86 Bears fame, he spent most of his pro career in Baltimore coaching the best defense of last decade in under various titles, including a spot as defensive line coach for the Superbowl Champion Ravens in 2000, which is only measured against his Dad’s ’86 Chicago squad in terms of greatness.  He’s a big fan of sleeveless sweater vests with turtle necks underneath and could potentially make millions as the next Subway spokesperson if coaching doesn’t work out.  Mistakenly thought his team was eliminated after a Week 15 loss against Atlanta only to find out not only were they alive but their final two opponents had nothing to play for.

Advantages: Playing with house money by getting to the AFC Championship.  All of his defensive players carry the same swagger and bravado as he does and they are playing as loose as any team around right now.  They also have the “nobody believes in us” mantra going for them which has fired up plenty of teams in recent history.  Also if the Jets need to go to a fourth string nose tackle he could most likely fill in.

Disadvantages: Has a rookie quarterback about to play in a hostile atmosphere in the biggest game of the season against one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game on the other side.  Completely one dimensional on offense and cannot rely on Mark Sanchez to out-duel Peyton Manning under any circumstances.  If the Colts get ahead early his team has little to zero chances of coming back.

Pressure Level: None.  Nobody thought the Jets would be here and for a fanbase as tortured as the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets! fans, two playoff wins is more than enough.  Even if they get dismantled on Sunday look for Fireman Ed to motion for a 300 lb statue of Rex Ryan to be built in front of the new stadium next year.

Sunday 6:40 PM EST Sean Payton (Saints) vs Brad Childress (Vikings)

Brees and Payton have been the NFL's most potent offensive duo in recent years

Sean Payton

Experience: After brief stints with the Eagles and Giants in the late 90s he moved within the division to Dallas where he worked under Bill Parcells as an assistant coach.  Was dealt a short hand while in Dallas having to coach Quincy Carter, Vinny Testaverde and Drew Bledsoe but hit the jackpot when he took over in New Orleans and Drew Brees signed on as a free agent.  Of all the coaches in the Conference Championship round, Payton has the best credentials.  He led the Saints here three years ago but got throttled in Chicago by the Bears; many of the players remain on the Saints this year and will be ready for the challenges to Conference title game brings.

Advantages: Will be coaching at home in what should be the loudest Superdome crowd in history.  The Saints have the best homefield advantage in all of the NFL and it will be thunderous in New Orleans on Sunday.  He is the most creative playcaller left in the playoffs and has a plethora of weapons at his disposal.  He creates matchup problems for any defense which will help neutralize Minnesota’s pass rush.

Disadvantages: The jury is out on if his defense can come through in a big game.  If the Vikings pass rush is getting to Brees he is going to have to dig deep into his bag of tricks to get the Saints moving.  While the Saints are capable of winning any kind of shootout they’ll need some semblance of defense to avoid an early deficit and keep to the Superdome rocking.

Pressure Level: Moderate.  While the Saints are the favorites in this game the good people of New Orleans will not be calling for anyone’s head if they go down.  After Dallas ended their run at perfection in December the Saints fans stayed an applauded once the final whistle blew.  A win would push him to “never have to pay for a meal in New Orleans” status but everyone’s safe if they lose.

A made for TV movie villian has a chance to go to the Superbowl

Brad Childress

Experience: Worked under offensive guru Andy Reid for several years in Philadelphia and unfortunately inherited his former boss’ clock management skills as well.  Bounced around a good chunk before landing in Philadelphia then ended up in Minnesota where he probably would have already been fired if the team hadn’t landed Adrian Peterson in the 2007 NFL draft.  His career record with the Vikings is 36-28 and 1-1 in the postseason.  Wears an odd earpiece/headset thing to communicate idiotic time management and play calls back and forth.  Decided to grow a beard to distance himself from looking like any made for TV movie serial killer but ended up looking like a picture seen on the news in any kind of Amber Alert case.

Advantages: Brett Favre has enough playoff experience to make up for the rest of the Vikings who may have a deer in the headlights look shared by their head coach.  Adrian Peterson can run and help keep the Saints’ offense of the field and New Orleans has a below average secondary that Favre will pick apart if given the time.  Unless he reverts back to the recent playoff Favre where he will throw at least 2 spine crushing interceptions for Vikings fans.

Disadvantages: Cannot handle the two minute drill whatsoever, is incapable of properly working with timeouts and often challenges calls that you are not allowed to challenge.  He also has the ticking time bomb that is Brett Favre who can explode for 4 picks in 6 possessions if he gets the yips.

Pressure Level: High.  Favre came back to win the Superbowl, America had to sit through the entire offseason soap opera and if they don’t get to the big game bringing him back got one more win in the playoffs then last year and now they have to deal with the will he or won’t he talk through minicamp and beyond.  Enjoy!

If we had to rank these coaches it would go something like this: 1. Payton 2. Ryan 3. Caldwell 4. Childress.  There are going to be plenty of other factors at play and Peyton Manning pretty much levels any slight edge Ryan has over Caldwell.  You can’t get this far without being somewhat competent but you also need savvy along the way.  But how would you feel if your favorite teams’ season rested on the acumen of Brad Childress in a big spot?  These are the questions that are going to decide who plays in Miami in a couple weeks.

Stay Tuned for a podcast and picks for Championship weekend later in the week.

*Author’s Note: The links are all underlined*

Link one is an article that you’ll need ESPN Insider to check out but it helps put Kurt Warner’s playoff brilliance into perspective.  McGinn and I chat briefly about how he went from being the ultimate “maybe” hall of famer to a sure thing over the last calendar year.  Here Bill Barnwell of Football Outsiders compares Warner’s playoff numbers to those of Tom Brady.  If you don’t read that article and think that Kurt will end up in Canton one day I don’t know what to tell you.

Two of NBC's biggest stars took the gloves off and threw some punches at each other this week

Our conversation eventually steered us to the late night shakeup over at NBC.  I think what Conan has been doing since he released his genius statement on Tuesday has just reinforced the love his most devoted followers have for him.  He has spent the first 10 minutes of every night just ripping NBC to shreds all with that same Conanlike self-deprication that gives all of us the appreciation we have for him.  He’s been a smart and hilarious risk taker that has turned his monologues into must see television and by doing so proves that NBC is making the wrong choice.  Jay Leno has tried to do the same but it comes off as stale and smug.   NBC is booting a comedian that resonates with people who are about to enter their nightly news/first 10 minutes of the “Tonight Show “  viewing prime and replacing him with a guy who’s lost his fastball and his biggest Neilsen ratings will be drawn from a 50+ audience that will slowly dwindle over time.  When you take a step back and think about it, NBC couldn’t have possibly messed this up more.  They moved the #1 late night host to 10 PM and oversaturated their lineup so by the time Conan came on people were ready to change the channel or go to sleep.  Then they screw Conan and piss off  his entire 18-35 demographic that they are going to need for advertisers in favor of Leno, whose audience is done deciding what products they want to buy at this point.  The all around incompetence is astonishing and now it’s clear why this is a last place network.

My favorite monologe so far came from Conan the day he released his statement where he takes the gloves off and works NBC like a speedbag.  Here is a link to the full episode and his first 10 minutes are truly outstanding.  While Conan has been crushing it every night his competitors have joined in on the fun too: this past Tuesday Jimmy Kimmel came out dressed as the big chinned guy everyone’s been talking about recently.  Then just last night Leno put Kimmel on his 10 PM show (an added slap in the face to Conan by booking a competitor of his) and Kimmel just trashed him right to his face.  Finally David Letterman, the true King of Late Night, who was also once involved in an NBC screwjob, chimed in with some shots at Leno and NBC as he explained the situation.

We now shift gears back to the NBA and touch on Gilbert Arenas’ stupidity.  I enjoyed PTI Cohost Michael Wilbon’s take on it from the Washington Post this week.  Mr. Wilbon lives in DC so not only do we get the take from one of the best national NBA guys in the media, but we also get some of the local flavor as well.

To cap off the first podcast of the decade McGinn explains how there is an internet clip of Scottie Pippen getting beat up by little people.  He drops an f- bomb so be sure to keep the volumes down at work but really…one of the best 50 basketball players in history is blindsided and attacked by little people–don’t you just love the internet?

Just one more before we get to the picks; call it a bonus link, I present to you the top 100 fail clips from 2009.  It’s like watching a more violent and faster paced America’s Funniest Home Videos only Bob Saget isn’t involved.

Onto the picks, winners in bold.

McGinn:

Arizona at New Orleans
Baltimore at Indianapolis
Dallas at Minnesota
New York Jets at San Diego

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 2-2

Hugh:

Arizona at New Orleans
Baltimore at Indianapolis
Dallas at Minnesota
New York Jets at San Diego

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 2-2

Hugh’s Pick vs the Spread: Cardinals (+7), Ravens (+7), Cowboys (+2.5), Chargers (-7)

Last Week: 2-2
Playoffs: 2-2

Superbowl XLIV Podcast

The best in the game

Earlier today the AP announced that Charles Woodson is its NFL Defensive Player of the year.  Seems like an alright choice; after all, Woodson had one of his best all-around seasons for the second rated defense in the NFL.  He had 63 tackles, 27 passes defended, eight interceptions, 3 touchdowns, four forced fumbles, one fumble recovery and 2 sacks.  Truly an astonishing stat line, but if you look into the numbers a bit it would indicate that Woodson was thrown at a good amount as opposed to other shut down corners, namely Darrelle Revis of the Jets.  My one question to the 28 voters who voted for Woodson would be this: If you could have one corner for 60 minutes on your team who would it be?  If they don’t answer Darrelle Revis they are lying.  Which would lead me to conclude that he is the best in football yet somehow not the best of the year?

What Revis did this season is unparalleled when it comes to cornerbacks; he held the following wide receivers under 35 yards this season: Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Roddie White, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Chad Ochocinco (twice), Randy Moss (twice) and Terrell Owens (twice).  The Jets lost defensive nose tackle (and defensive linchpin) Kris Jenkins in October and they still finished with the #1 overall rated defense, mainly due to Revis who took away every opponent’s biggest passing threat week after week.  For more perspective I turn to the guys at Profootballfocus.com for this statistic:  Revis was thrown at 111 times this season and he allowed 41 catches.  That’s a 36.9% success rate if you are the wide receiver.  No other corner (including the recently minted Defensive Player of the Year) that was thrown at over 70 times was lower than 49.5%.  We’re talking about Pedro Martinez in 1999 level of dominance here with that kind of schism from best to second.  Also considering how Revis straight dominated the best in the league and teams just stopped throwing in his direction, he still finished with 6 picks and a touchdown–not too far off from Woodson, who saw a lot more action come his way.

I’m not shocked the voting went this way but I hope those out there (voters and fans) realize how spectacular a season Revis had.  We’ve never seen opponents as terrified to throw at a cornerback since Primetime was in his prime.  And frankly when the Defensive Player of the Year isn’t remotely in the same discussion as a guy who plays his exact position something is wrong.  Kudos to Charles Woodson but Revis is the best defender in the league.

Whatever fake contrition Arenas showed was quickly wiped away with this photo

Rant: Gilbert Arenas…I mean, really?  Let’s lay this one out: he plays for a team that changed their name to the Wizards after their late and beloved owner Abe Pollin decided “Bullets” had too many negative connotations in the 90s.  Abe Pollin just passed away in late November and now we have Gilbert who brings guns into the locker room, first citing that they were unsafe to have in his own home.  Then we find out (according to him) he played an elaborate joke on his teammate Javaris Crittenon involving these unloaded guns.  He then releases a statement that he didn’t write which comes across as apologetic and contrite.  How do I know he didn’t write it?  Because he then had the audacity to turn around and pretend to use his fingers as two pistols in the middle of a team huddle before the start of Tuesday’s game which shows that he still thinks this all one big joke.  I don’t think Arenas was suspended indefinitely because of the gun “prank” I think its because he was either too stupid, too ignorant or too arrogant and made a mockery of a situation that makes the NBA look bad.  David Stern will not stand for that and I don’t think we’ll see Agent Zero again this season.

Rant: Talking heads on sports radio and television shows that use the: “I picked team X and Y at the beginning of the season so I can’t stray from that now!”  when asked who’s playing the Superbowl.  Your job is to objectively process and analyze sports information so yes, you can indeed change your picks from the Ravens and Vikings given the mountain of evidence that has emerged over the last 17 weeks.  No one expects you to pick the Superbowl every year; give me some updated, fresh analysis of the contenders that have emerged.

Rant: Chicago Sports…I live in this city, I read the papers and listen to the radio call-in shows.  This past Monday my podcastmate and I went to the Bulls/Thunder game at the United Center.  What was staggering to me was that the Bulls were blown out of the gym in the second half but no one seemed that outraged.  This is the same team and head coach that blew a 35 point second half lead this season and here they were again with a slim halftime lead that quickly evaporated but no one said a peep.  Are spirits too broken to muster a boo?  Vinny Del Negro is the most incompetent head coach in the NBA–how are people not more outraged by this?  Then the Bears announce that Lovie Smith is staying despite having gone 23-25 since a Superbowl run 3 seasons ago.  Mike Shanahan was available up until Wednesday, Bill Cowher is being pursued by the Buffalo Bills, yet the Bears remain content with mediocrity because they’re too damn cheap to can Lovie and hire a coach with a Lombardi Trophy on his resume.  Again people just seem to accept this fate.  Chicago sports fans…to paraphrase from one of your city’s favorite sons: You have to force the change you can believe in.  Boo Vinny, scowl at the Bears, skewer the management, stop buying tickets–basically force their hands.  These teams have proven that as long as the money is coming in the commitment to winning is not as paramount as the bottom line.  It’s like having Donald Sterling without the shady off the field proceedings.  Get fired up and help bring some winners to this town.

The new and improved Belmont stop is making everyone's commute easier

Rave: The Belmont Red Line Stop…After three long years the northside exit opened up for the New Year!  That means I can get off the train, walk down the stairs, and hop on a waiting bus right under the tracks on the North side of the street.  No crossing the street, no chasing the #77 down; just pure bliss from door to door.  They also added an escalator for the northbound platform for trains heading to Howard in the morning.  The train crew I ride with have used phrases like “life-changing” and “glorious” in regards to these recent events.  Bravo Belmont stop!  You’ve made my and many others lives somewhere between 3-5% better during the week.  It was worth the wait.

Rant: The CTA bus “Double Stack”…I am a frequent bus taker, especially in the morning.  Yesterday morning we were getting pounded with snow and as I was walking towards my bus stop and a #77  bus pulled away in front of me…damn.  Then another 77 was right behind it pulling away as well.  How does this make sense?  The goal of public transit is to transport the citizens of this city to work but people get to the bus stops at different times; shouldn’t the CTA spread its resources out?  Why would we need two buses at the same stop when others are arriving 5-10 minutes later then those who are boarding immediately?  If two buses are behind each other one of them should wait a bit so all the resources the CTA has at its disposal are used to their full capacity.

Alright, onto the playoff picks.  McGinn and I will be back with a podcast for the divisional round next week.

Winners in bold.

McGinn:

New York Jets at Cincinnati
Philadelphia at Dallas
Baltimore at New England
Green Bay at Arizona

Regular Season total: 157-85 (Missed Week 5)
Playoffs: 0-0

Hugh:

New York Jets at Cincinnati
Philadelphia at Dallas
Baltimore at New England
Green Bay at Arizona

Regular Season Total: 174-82
Playoffs: 0-0

Hugh’s Picks vs the Spread: Jets (+2.5), Cowboys (-4), Patriots (-3.5), Packers (+2.5)

Regular Season vs Spread: 137-119
Playoffs: 0-0

Tier 5: “We can build on this!”

12.  Bengals (10-6): Cincinnati was a big surprise to everyone by winning the AFC North this season but if you take a step back what exactly makes this team special?  Carson Palmer had an okay season, Ochocinco has been great, Cedric Benson can keep defenses honest and their defense is solid but there’s nothing that would make you say “Oh the Bengals are on, I gotta watch this!”  Here’s an interesting stat about the Bengals: Since beating the Steelers and Ravens, Cincinnati has gone 3-4 down the stretch.  Granted last week’s loss was more of a throwaway game but they beat the woeful Browns, Lions and Chiefs and lost to the Raiders, Vikings, Chargers and Jets.  3-1 vs teams with a top 10 draft pick and 0-3 against teams in the playoffs is not how you want to head into the postseason.  This whole year has been emotional for the Bengals, especially with their recent loss of teammate Chris Henry.  For the Bengals to move forward into January they are going to need to channel that emotion and find the spark this team has been lacking since mid-November.

The Jets will go as far as Jones and their running game will take them

11.  Jets (9-7): We have to put Herm’s former team with one of his most memorable phrases.  There are three things working for the Jets: They can run the ball as well as anyone, they have the#1 overall defense in the league and Darrell Revis can shut down any of their opponents best wide receivers.  On paper (or, I suppose, on computer screen) this looks like a recipe for a deep playoff run.  However, the Jets have one insurmountable obstacle weighing them down (no pun intended Rex).  Rookie Quarterback Mark Sanchez finished the season with 12 TDs and 20 Picks giving him an overall quarterback rating of 63.  How can you make an argument that this guy is going to win three straight road playoff games against Cincinnati, Indianapolis and (most likely) San Diego?  You can hide your quarterback with a great running game sometimes but what happens when the Jets need a TD in a two minute drill?  It’s not happening.  This will ultimately cost them but considering they were left in the lurch by Brett Favre, brought in a new Head Coach, and started a rookie quarterback all season the Jets will be a team to look out for moving into the early part of this decade.

Tier 4: A Bit Scary but Flawed

10.  Ravens (9-7): The seven losses can be deceiving with the Ravens; they lost to the Patriots, Bengals (twice), Vikings, Colts, Packers and Steelers.  Every one of their losses came against a team with a winning record and 5 of those games were on the road.  It’s not like they punched their ticket to the postseason like the Jets by having teams lay down in front of them on the way in.  The Ravens biggest strength is their running game–just last week in Oakland with Ray Rice taking it easy Willis McGahee stepped up and ran for over 150 yards.  They cannot throw the ball with any kind of consistency and their defense is nowhere near where it was at the height of its powers last decade.  So we’re looking at a one trick pony here and in a road playoff game in New England its going to take more than that to advance.  Flacco has been shaky down the stretch and this team is one of the most undisciplined in the league when it comes to penalties.  They can obviously play with anyone (Baltimore only lost by more than a touchdown twice in the aforementioned games), but unreliable receivers and a shaky quarterback on the road with flags flying everyone doesn’t bode well for the postseason, especially in a close game.

The Patriots chance at a deep run was carted off with Welker

9.  Patriots (10-6):  There’s no getting around the loss of Wes Welker: he was statistically the most productive wide receiver in the NFL and attributed for almost 33% of New England’s offense this year.  After thumping Jacksonville a “Look out for New England!” groundswell was brewing but then Welker’s knee blew out and the Pats were left with two great players on offense (Moss and Brady), while everyone else had to step up.  Working for them in this first round is the fact that they are at home where they haven’t lost all season and they drew the one of the best possible matchups they could with Baltimore.  New England’s run defense is in the top half of the league and Baltimore’s secondary is vulnerable.  Plus they have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady–a tandem that’s never lost a home playoff game, never lost a Wild Card playoff game and is an astonishing 14-3 in the playoffs together.  Look for the Patriots to take care of business at home this Sunday then get rolled in San Diego in another week.

Tier 3: Dangerous

8.  Cardinals (10-6): Every week last year we waited for the Cardinals to lose in the playoffs; this was a team that was 9-7 in a horrendous division.  We kept waiting…and waiting…and waiting…then they came just one amazing Steelers drive short of being World Champions.  Regardless of how shaky they looked at times this year the recipe is identical.  If Warner has time the Cardinals offense can keep pace with anyone in the NFL.  The potential loss of Anquan Boldin would be a big one but Beanie Wells seems to have established a bit of momentum (last week’s mail-it-in vs the Packers not withstanding) in hopes of keeping Arizona’s high-powered offense balanced.  We learned last year that these guys can get hot at any point and remember this is the same team that throttled the Vikings in early December.

7. Eagles (11-5): Live by the big play, die by the big play seems to be Philadelphia’s M.O. entering this postseason.  They were a win in Dallas short of a first round playoff bye; this team knew exactly what was at stake if they went in and won last weekend so I am not buying any “they were holding back a little” arguments I’ve been hearing over the last week.  Dallas’ defense is exactly how to beat the Eagles: limit their big plays in the passing game by making McNabb uncomfortable with a pass rush and not letting DeSean Jackson get behind the defense.  Conversely Dallas can wear down a stout Philly D with a great tandem of playoff running backs and Tony Romo playing the best football of his career.  If Philadelphia can get through Dallas they can beat Minnesota, New Orleans, Green Bay or Arizona.  I just don’t like the way they match up against Dallas, despite the fact that Wade Phillips will be predominately involved.

6.  Packers (11-5): Green Bay can beat you in a number of ways.  One thing I haven’t heard talked about much is how the losses of Al Harris and Aaron Kampman have actually improved the Packer defense.  Kampman seemed totally lost in Dom Caper’s 3-4 scheme and Al Harris has always had plenty of bravado but ultimately is more hype than anything else when going against premiere recievers (see Moss, Randy 2005 Playoffs otherwise known as: Joe Buck’s Conniption on Fox).  Harris and Kampman went down the same week against San Francisco in late November and Green Bay has only lost 1 game since on a miracle throw and catch by Big Ben in Pittsburgh.  Green Bay has the #2 ranked overall defense in the NFL and is #6 is total offense, the only other playoff team who have both in the top 6 is Minnesota.  This has long been the recipe for postseason success and nobody wants to see the Packers right now.

Wade Phillips is a beard and satchel short of becoming Alan

5. Dallas (11-5): The only thing that prevents me from bumping them higher is that every time there is a cutaway to Wade Phillips I cannot picture him hoisting any kind of trophy.  He just looks like he has no idea what’s going on when he releases that “Aww shucks! Dang!” kind of tirades caught on camera.  He reminds me a bit of Alan from The Hangover (Zach Galifianakis’ character) when he is emulating Phil after the Doug retrieval goes bad (kicking the dirt helplessly not knowing what he’s doing).  It’s safe to say that when an NFL Head Coach reminds me of the dimwitted soon to be brother in law from The Hangover it doesn’t bode well.  But Dallas is really good.  Marion Barber and Felix Jones provide enough balance to keep the defenses honest and let Tony Romo pick them apart when he’s in a groove.  Miles Austin is a coach’s dream: tough, catches everything, will absorb enormous hits and make a big play.  Call him the anti-Roy Williams.  Jason Witten is one of the best tight ends in football.  Their pass rush is tremendous and their secondary and linebackers are also above average.  Do they have enough to win in spite of the Michelin Man (my Dad’s name for good ole Wade)?  I think so, but I can’t think of a more terrifying proposition for Cowboy fans then being down in a close game with the clock winding and seeing a Wade Phillips deer-in-the-headlights cutaway knowing he’s the guy you need to help bring you to the promise land.

Tier 2:  Question Marks

4.  Minnesota (12-4): Does Brett Favre have enough left for three more wins?  Can he reign it in?  Will he implode like he has in recent playoffs?  Where’s Adrian Peterson?  Has Jared Allen fallen off a bit?  How shaky is their secondary?  How much control does Brad Childress have? These are just a few of the questions surrounding the Vikings and their potential playoff run.  The Vikings finished 2-3 down the stretch after starting off the season 10-2.  They got blown out in Arizona, embarrassed in Carolina, somehow lost to the Bears but managed to soundly beat the Bengals and Giants (one of the all time “we don’t want to be here” games I can remember).  There has been controversy off the field after a spat between Favre and Childress.  I don’t think the Vikings can right the ship in time to beat teams as good as Dallas, Philly, Arizona or even Green Bay.  While Dallas and Green Bay have surged into the playoffs the Vikings backed in and almost lost a bye week if it wasn’t for the Eagles getting blown out in Jerryworld last Sunday.  It’s hard to get behind a team with no clear leader or identity anymore on either side of the ball.

3.  New Orleans (13-3): Is it a good idea to lose all momentum going into the playoffs?  Did this team peak on Monday Night against New England?  How banged up is their already suspect defense?  New Olreans looks like they’ve lost their mojo since losing at home to Dallas three weeks ago.  Truly great teams would take out their agression the next week on the lowly Buccanneers but somehow, inexplicably Tampa Bay went into New Orleans and beat them.  That’s two straight home losses; one to a team looking for its first significant December win in years and the other looking for its third win of the season.  Sean Payton then called off the dogs in Carolina last week and now New Orleans appears dormant heading into January.  They hold the most significant homefield advantage of any team in the playoffs and will be there throughout their playoff run.  We’ve already seen them lose to Dallas in the Superdome and Green Bay has the defense to keep the Saints in check plus enough firepower to torch the Saints porous secondary; the same goes for Arizona and Philly.  However the first round shakes down the Saints will have to find their swagger or it’s one and done on the Bayou after a brilliant start.

2.  Indianapolis (14-2): Should they have rested their starters?  That’s the only real question that matters with them right now.  If they lose the answer is no; if they win it all the answer is…maybe.  Indianapolis Star writer Bob Kravitz outlined what the Colts threw away 2 weeks ago.  Here’s my biggest issue that has emerged: so we have Bill Polian, one of the greatest personnel men of all time in the NFL, whose philosophy, by all accounts, is rest over risk.  So in the Jets game, at home, with thousands of paying customers hoping to see their team go 15-0, the Colts shut it down to avoid any season altering risks.  But the next week Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and the rest of the Indianapolis offense take the field in a Buffalo blizzard! It seems that if the Colts can acheive personal records (Manning’s start streak, catches  for Wayne and Clark, etc) it’s worth rolling out the starters in the worst weather possible, but when the entire team has a chance at football immortality it’s not worth going for it.  That is a complete contradiction and it’s shameful to leave perfection on the table while continuing to rack up individual achievements.  I was ready to crown Peyton as the best ever with a 19-0 season.  Now I don’t even think they’ll get to Miami.

Tier 1: The Favorite

San Diego looks ready for Miami lead by the arm of Phil Rivers

1.  San Diego (13-3):  Winners of eleven straight including wins over three playoff teams (Philly, Dallas and Cincinnati).  Phil Rivers and his receivers are the toughest matchup for any secondary in football.  The Pats’ young and tiny secondary doesn’t stand a chance and the Colts D can’t hang with them either.  Rivers has been an MVP level of brilliant this season and there is not a hotter team in football than the Chargers.  They remind me of the 2003 Patriots, who started 2-2 and didn’t lose another game all season straight through the Superbowl.  There was nothing flashy about those Patriots the won big, the won in the final 2 minutes, they held leads and moved the chains when needed.  San Diego seems to have the same set of tools.  The Chargers are good enough on defense to stay in games and they have an offense that can milk a lead or comeback if needed.  Much like Wade Phillips is an obstacle in Dallas, Norv Turner’s track record doesn’t hold up that well either.  However, this team played in the AFC Championship two years ago and lost to the eventual Champions (Pittsburgh) in the divisional round last year.  They have also beaten the Colts each of the last two seasons when it mattered the most.  On the road, at home, in Miami; it doesn’t matter, the Chargers are ready to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Playoff Predictions:

Wild Card Round

New York Jets over Cincinnati
Dallas over Philadelphia
New England over Baltimore
Green Bay over Arizona

Divisional Round

San Diego over New England
Dallas over Minnesota
Indianapolis over New York Jets
New Orleans over Green Bay

Championship Round

San Diego over Indianapolis
Dallas over New Orleans

Superbowl XLIV

San Diego over Dallas
(America over Armageddon when Wade Phillips and Norv Turner face off in Miami)